Putin’s Russia – After Putin: Who Will Take the Kremlin and What Comes Next?

How did an unremarkable KGB officer become one of the most powerful and controversial leaders in the world? In this special series of the 4 Minutes podcast, we closely follow Vladimir Putin’s rise to power – from his childhood in Soviet Leningrad to his intelligence career and the key moments of his rule that reshaped Russia and the world. What events shaped his policies? What are the roots of the current conflict? And what does the future hold for Russia?

Join us for this compelling series and understand how Putin’s Russia came to be. 🎙️

Transcript

In this episode, we look toward the future. What will happen when Vladimir Putin eventually leaves the Kremlin? Who could replace him – and what would it mean for Russia, Europe, and the world? After more than twenty years in power, most Russians can hardly imagine anyone else leading the country. Putin has become synonymous with the Russian state, with stability, and with authoritarian continuity. But no regime lasts forever. And that is why questions are being asked more frequently: what would the end of Putinism look like? And what – or who – might come next?

There are several scenarios. The first and most often mentioned is the managed transition – a situation in which Putin himself selects a successor, much like Yeltsin did in 1999. This successor would be loyal, continue the regime’s policies, and maintain the system’s continuity. Potential names include Dmitry Medvedev, who already formally served as president for four years, or Sergey Sobyanin – the technocratic mayor of Moscow, seen as a low-profile figure. Another possibility is Sergey Kiriyenko, a former prime minister and currently an influential figure in the presidential administration. All of them have one thing in common – they do not represent true change, but rather an adaptation of the regime to new circumstances.

The second scenario is a power struggle within the system, in the event that Putin dies suddenly or if his authority collapses due to a military defeat or internal crisis. This could lead to chaos, as competing factions – from intelligence services to the military, oligarchs, and regional elites – vie for control. The outcome would be unpredictable. It could result in a more repressive and hardened regime – or, on the contrary, in a gradual shift toward liberalization. Much would depend on who gains control of the security forces and state media.

The third scenario is a spontaneous collapse of the regime, driven by economic crisis, mass protests, or unexpected geopolitical developments. Such a collapse could resemble the fall of the Soviet Union – rapid, chaotic, and with an uncertain outcome. New forces might emerge from the margins of society or from exile – opposition politicians, dissidents, intellectuals, or young entrepreneurs. But without preparation, institutions, or political culture, a smooth transition to democracy would be extremely difficult.

Another possible outcome is what some call "Putinism without Putin" – where Putin leaves office, due to age, health, or another reason, but the entire system remains intact. All institutions, rules, and networks stay the same. The only thing that changes is the face at the top, while the regime continues as before. This type of continuity is common in authoritarian states – seen in countries like China, Iran, or Belarus.

And finally, we must not overlook external influences. If the global geopolitical environment shifts – for example, if China reduces its support for Russia, or if the West reaches a new agreement on European security – there may be greater pressure for reform. It’s also possible that the war in Ukraine itself could eventually create the conditions for major transformation of the Russian regime.

The question of "The Kremlin After Putin" is not just about names – it’s about the very nature of power in Russia. Is it a system built around one man, or one that can survive by simply replacing its figurehead? Or does Russia still have a real chance for a true democratic reboot?

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